In the Network of the Conclave

The sacred silence of the Sistine Chapel will speak again. Following the death of Pope Francis, the Conclave will open on May 7 to elect the 267th pontiff of the Catholic Church. Hundreds of millions of faithful are ready to watch for the white smoke, in the most classic of rituals where mystery and spirituality intertwine with history. But while it is the Holy Spirit who inspires the final word, the choice of the Pope also remains a human, social, and political event.

Behind the closed doors of the Conclave, dynamics are at play that closely resemble those of a presidential election or the appointment of a CEO by a board of directors, but with ancient codes and rituals entrusted to a small circle of cardinal electors. How is consensus formed around a candidate? Who really influences the final choice? Is there a map of ecclesiastical power capable of anticipating the strongest names?

A group of Bocconi scholars—Giuseppe Soda, Alessandro Iorio, and Leonardo Rizzo—attempt to answer these questions with academic rigor and scientific tools that are unprecedented in this context.

The Vatican as a relational ecosystem

In their study, the three researchers applied social network analysis methods to the most closed and symbolic world that exists: that of the College of Cardinals. The goal? Not to predict the election with certainty, but to understand which relational structures increase the probability that a cardinal will emerge as a papabile figure.

“Our starting point is simple,” explains Giuseppe Soda, professor of organization at Bocconi University, “even in the Church, as in any human organization, relationships matter. The more connected, listened to, and central an individual is in the flow of information, the more likely they are to become a unifying figure.”

The research team reconstructed a multilevel model of the ’Vatican network” using three main sources:

• Official co-memberships (Roman curia dicasteries, commissions, councils, academies): these data reveal who works with whom and in what institutional contexts.
• Lines of episcopal consecration: each cardinal was ordained by others, and these “spiritual genealogies” build strong bonds of loyalty and recognition.
• Informal relationships: mapped through authoritative journalistic sources, these include ideological affinities, mentoring relationships, and membership in patronage networks.

By superimposing these levels, the group produced the first true systemic map of the College of Cardinals.

Status, information, and alliances: three keys to power

The innovation of the study lies in the definition of the three criteria that determine the “prominence” of a cardinal in the ecclesiastical network:

• Status, measured by ‘eigenvector centrality’, rewards cardinals who are connected not only to many, but to the most influential ones.
• Information control, estimated using ‘betweenness centrality’, identifies those who act as hubs between different groups: bridges, rather than pillars.
• The ability to build coalitions, calculated using a composite index that combines clustering (which reflects how much a cardinal is part of a cohesive group based on trust and able to provide strong support) and direct influence (through the cardinal's centrality, which measures how many direct connections they have—the higher the degree, the greater the influence and popularity) and strategic role (i.e., the extent to which a cardinal can act as a social bridge thanks to their position at the center of conversations or connections between other members of the network, improving their ability to build alliances between groups).

Added to these factors is a fundamental element: age. The model incorporates a statistical correction based on the average age of popes elected since 1800, to take into account the historical preference for figures who are neither too young nor too old.

The strong names in the Conclave, according to science

The rankings clearly show some central figures in the Vatican network. Here is a summary of the top names for each dimension:

Top 5 by Status

1. Robert Prevost (moderate, US)
2. Lazzaro You Heung-sik (soft liberal, South Korea)
3. Arthur Roche (liberal, UK)
4. Jean-Marc Aveline (soft liberal, France)
5. Claudio Gugerotti (soft liberal, Italy)

Top 5 for Information Control

1. Anders Arborelius (soft conservative, Sweden)
2. Pietro Parolin (liberal, Italy)
3. Víctor Fernández (liberal, Argentina)
4. Gérald Lacroix (moderate, Canada)
5. Joseph Tobin (liberal, USA)

Top 5 for Coalition Building Capacity

1. Luis Antonio Tagle (soft liberal, Philippines)
2. Ángel Fernández Artime (soft liberal, Spain)
3. Gérald Lacroix (moderate, Canada)
4. Fridolin Besungu (soft conservative, Congo)
5. Sérgio da Rocha (soft liberal, Brazil)

At the center of the network graph displayed in the study, there is a high density of connections between cardinals with a “soft liberal” orientation and a good geographical distribution, with Europe and South America still very present, but with Asia and Africa becoming increasingly strategic.

A useful model, not a prophecy

The Bocconi team is the first to point out the limitations of the model. “We do not claim to predict the outcome of the Conclave,” Soda points out. “As the great statistician George Box said: ‘All models are wrong, but some are useful.’ Ours is intended to be a tool for reading the context, not an oracle.”

On the other hand, history confirms how important relational dynamics are. Benedict XVI was at the center of the theological Curia. Francis, on the other hand, arrived as an outsider: “from the end of the world,” and also on the margins of the ecclesiastical network, as the model would have shown at the time.

From algorithm to Spirit

The next pope will be the result of many variables: spiritual inspiration, geopolitical balances, doctrinal orientation, diplomatic skills. But knowing the structure of ecclesiastical power today is a valuable tool for understanding which way the wind might blow, leading to the consensus in the Conclave necessary to elect Pope Francis' successor. As Soda concludes: “The election of the Pope remains a process steeped in sacredness that commands great respect; science, in this case network science, can only contribute to improving our understanding of the human processes that accompany it.